- NFP 250k vs 190k forecast. Revisions roughly balanced
- Labor force participation 62.9 vs 62.7 (bad for bonds... more people working)
- Jobless rate 3.7 vs 3.7
- Wages y/y 3.1 vs 3.1 forecast
This is pretty unequivocally bad for bonds. Anywhere we could look for "yeah buts" to mitigate the negative impact of the data, we're coming up short. About the only "yeah but" available is that the 3.1% y/y average hourly earnings number--while the highest on record during the recovery from the Great Recession, was merely in line with analyst expectations. Still, that's precious little consolation.
10yr yields are up 3.8bps on the day at 3.1722 and Fannie 4.0 MBS are down nearly a quarter of a point at 99-29 (99.91).