The relationship between short and long term yields is an important indicator for bond markets and the broader economy. 10yr yields are almost always higher than 2yr yields, but when they become much closer together, or when 2yr yields actually rise above 10yr yields, conventional wisdom holds that recession is in store.
With 10's trading around 1.75 and 2's around 0.8, we're nowhere close to a so-called "inverted yield curve," but the gap has grown relentlessly narrower since the beginning of 2014. Any time the yield curve is narrowing this much, and especially when it's breaking below 1% (as it is now), investors begin wondering how far away the next recession might be.
This yield curve flattening is the first warning in the short term bond
The second warning cuts the opposite direction. It stems from the fact that
Now that 2's are moving again, the risk is that further upward movement can create upward pressure for 10yr yields as well. This has always been the case in the past, although ahead of recessions the impact of rising 2yr yields is limited (obviously, if they've actually risen to higher yields than
In other words, 2yr yields spiked higher than their previous trend would suggest and the first part of 2016 runs the risk of merely being the time when 2yr yields returned to that trend. If that's the case AND, importantly, if we're not on the doorstep of a recession (a big "if," depending whom you ask), that upward pressure can still translate to upward pressure on longer-term rates like 10's and mortgages. If it does, the following chart is a bit scary.
With all of the above in mind, anticipation over next week's ECB announcement could overshadow domestic economic data this week, to some extent. Don't expect markets to completely tune