The basic candlestick or bar chart that the average bond analyst uses to track 10yr Treasury yields is doing a good job of capturing the current opposing forces in rates. On the one hand, the combination of economic data, NAFTA 2.0, and Fed comments (among other things) makes a logical case for higher rates. This is easily seen as the pervasive series of "higher lows" over the past 2 months.
On the other hand, doubts about the sustainability of lofty economic numbers and doubts about the market's ability to thrive with 10yr yields over 3.25% make a case for support. This can be seen in the less-developed series of "lower highs" leading back from the long-term high 2 weeks ago.
The result is the typical triangle--a consolidation pattern where the higher lows and lower highs eventually collide. The takeaway from such triangles can be as simple as saying "oh look, there's a triangle. There must be some indecision around these levels!" or as presumptuous as "rates are clearly storing energy in anticipation of a big breakout."
Either way, the triangle will have to be broken early this week. It wouldn't be a surprise to see an underwhelming follow-through, given the sparsely populated economic calendar. Bigger-ticket reports don't show up until the 2nd half of the week and even then, the reports aren't the biggest market movers recently.
3.18% (where we're starting out today) has been a short-term pivot point of some significance. It's been more willing to act as a ceiling recently, but is being approached as a floor coming down from Friday's higher levels. If it results in a bounce toward higher rates, 3.21-3.22% would be the next level to watch, based on last week's highs. If rates can continue to rally, 3.13% remains the level to beat.